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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 4 February 2007, at 7:49 p.m.

In Response To: Hickey/Stick (Stick)

OTB Mary & I did the typical, DT, I just wanted to post it because I often see this sort of position, on the rare occassion it is reached, misunderstood, by both sides! Sometimes Blue doesn't double with the enormous volatility and juicy gammons is a must. On the other hand I see the same people, who wouldn't double as Blue, PASS as White!? White has way too much structure in this example to give up. Even if Blue does cover both blots if White comes in on the deuce point he has a lot of counterplay since his position is so solid.

Money Game
Blue(Stick) on roll. Cube Action?
159
135
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.547
1.0% 35.6% 63.8% 36.2% 8.7% 0.7%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.547 ±0.015 - live cube no double: 0.631 ±0.027, - live cube double take: 0.807 ±0.045. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 972 games (equiv. 28163 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
Evaluations
1. Double, take 0.831
2. No double 0.654 (-0.176)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.169)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Live cube
1. Double, take 0.807
2. No double 0.631 (-0.175)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.193)
Proper cube action: Double, take

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