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2008 MC QF ... rollout

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 26 July 2008, at 2:52 p.m.

In Response To: 2008 MC QF Neilsen/Schiff Game 1 cube (Daniel Murphy)

Gnubg rollout says: big pass. In EMG, about -0.125. In match equity, about -0.4%. Curiously, 2-ply passes (barely), and 3-ply passes, but 4-ply takes.

MC 2008 QF. KarstenNeilsen 0, JoelSchiff 0 (match to 21 points)

Game 1, Move 15: KarstenNeilsen on roll, cube decision?

KarstenNeilsen	101
JoelSchiff	140
Position ID: yLeDAQYzOxMHAA Match ID: MAGgAgAAAAAA

• KarstenNeilsen doubles, JoelSchiff takes

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5940	(Money: +0.5925)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.1254	+0.1254
3.	No double	+0.9804	-0.0196
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7695 0.0740 0.0015 - 0.2305 0.0213 0.0006 +0.5940 +0.9804 Standard error 0.0019 0.0028 0.0004 - 0.0019 0.0012 0.0001 0.0043 0.0147 Player JoelSchiff owns 2-cube 0.7785 0.0931 0.0030 - 0.2215 0.0242 0.0008 +1.2973 +1.1254 Standard error 0.0029 0.0045 0.0009 - 0.0029 0.0013 0.0002 0.0120 0.0184
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
342 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 832623180 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.5706 (Money: +0.5680)
0.7632 0.0624 0.0005 - 0.2368 0.0209 0.0003
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.0000
2. Double, take +1.0047 ( +0.0047)
3. No double +0.9388 ( -0.0612)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

Cube analysis
3-ply cubeless equity +0.6381 (Money: +0.6343)
0.7867 0.0762 0.0004 - 0.2133 0.0156 0.0001
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.0000
2. Double, take +1.1580 ( +0.1580)
3. No double +0.9885 ( -0.0115)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

Cube analysis
4-ply cubeless equity +0.5591 (Money: +0.5565)
0.7576 0.0609 0.0008 - 0.2424 0.0202 0.0003
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.9765
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.0235)
3. No double +0.9126 ( -0.0639)
Proper cube action: Double, take

Messages In This Thread

• 2008 MC QF Neilsen/Schiff Game 1 cube
  Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 25 July 2008, at 4:01 p.m.
  • 2008 MC QF Neilsen/Schiff Game 1 cube
    David -- Friday, 25 July 2008, at 4:33 p.m.
    • 2008 MC QF Neilsen/Schiff Game 1 cube
      Stick -- Friday, 25 July 2008, at 5:46 p.m.
  • 2008 MC QF Neilsen/Schiff Game 1 cube
    Keene -- Friday, 25 July 2008, at 5:11 p.m.
  • 2008 MC QF ... rollout
    Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 26 July 2008, at 2:52 p.m.