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Rollout

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 28 July 2008, at 12:40 p.m.

In Response To: At least I know now ... (Achim)

Your evaluation is better than mine was here as the open 6 pt will haunt me throught the game. OTB I figured quickly that this was a volatile and good enough to be a correct cube by .05, but I simply can't win this game that often.

Can my opp pass this enough to make it practically correct? Maybe, but then one must consider that by cubing now, I give up the chances of him making a bad T/P decision later.

Had I known that cubing was wrong by about .04 I'd have held onto it.

The score (after 0 games) is: Steve Brown 0, Neil 0 (match to 11 points)

Move number 6: Neil on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: Steve Brown 67, Neil 93
Position ID: 78sYACDubiIEQA Match ID: UQlgAQAAAAAA

• Neil doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.0392)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.3471	(Money: +0.3440)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.5353
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.4647
3.	Double, take	+0.4961	-0.0392
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (7.8%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg   Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Neil owns 2-cube 0.6328 0.1558 0.0036 - 0.3672 0.0798 0.0011 +0.3471 +0.5353 Standard error 0.0007 0.0011 0.0002 - 0.0007 0.0008 0.0002 0.0022 0.0028 Player Steve Brown owns 4-cube 0.6404 0.1544 0.0044 - 0.3596 0.0819 0.0019 +0.7590 +0.4961 Standard error 0.0008 0.0017 0.0002 - 0.0008 0.0009 0.0005 0.0051 0.0058
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2633 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 833057845 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

 

Messages In This Thread

• Go for the throat ?
  neilkaz -- Monday, 28 July 2008, at 2:19 a.m.
  • Go for the throat ?
    Stick -- Monday, 28 July 2008, at 2:27 a.m.
    • Sometimes the throat gets slit...
      neilkaz -- Monday, 28 July 2008, at 3:16 a.m.
      • Sometimes the throat gets slit...
        Stick -- Monday, 28 July 2008, at 3:22 a.m.
        • Sometimes the throat gets slit...
          neilkaz -- Monday, 28 July 2008, at 3:26 a.m.
          • Sometimes the throat gets slit...
            David Rockwell -- Monday, 28 July 2008, at 3:28 a.m.
          • At least I know now ...
            Achim -- Monday, 28 July 2008, at 10:49 a.m.
            • Rollout
              neilkaz -- Monday, 28 July 2008, at 12:40 p.m.
              • Rollout
                Stick -- Monday, 28 July 2008, at 1:22 p.m.
      • Sometimes the throat gets slit...
        garyo -- Monday, 28 July 2008, at 5:23 a.m.