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Re: Re: Re: OLM Mon. Feb. 5th

Posted By: Chase
Date: Monday, 5 February 2007, at 7:33 p.m.

In Response To: Re: Re: OLM Mon. Feb. 5th (Geoff Arnold)

Geoff, the key is that our position is so unsafe that the 9 racing pips we pick up by hitting will hardly ever matter. Nearly 20 percent of the time, White hits us back immediately, regaining those lost pips--perhaps more if we stay on the bar for a turn or two, or are forced to expose another checker. If he doesn't hit us back immediately, we're still in trouble. If we don't roll perfectly, White will have several chances to hit us as we try to tip-toe home. (Imagine what happens if White reenters on our 1pt.)

Any of those hits costs us our racing lead, and we'll have to be very lucky to avoid them. The plan should be to minimize our risk, so we hang around long enough to get lucky. We've got a fair chance of making an important point or rolling some life-saving doubles over the next few turns, if we can just stay safe, but we need to make sure we're not on the bar when that happens.

If you really want to get a feel for the position, set it up in GNU and play it forward 20 or 30 times. It'll take 5 minutes and you'll learn more than you did by reading this. :)

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