I'll be honest, I was tempted to let this cube go when I looked at it. I didn't give it a long hard look because all I had to do was figure out it was a double and let you worry about the rest!
Middle game equation let's try the PRaT method. First there's position. My position is rock solid and threatens to become even more firm with a lot of rolls. Advantage Stick. Race -- this isn't likely to become a race anytime soon but even if it does I have a slight advantage, being up 3 pips and on roll. The race isn't worth too much here though not only is it one hell of a long race, it just isn't a race! Threats -- I have plenty of them, you have none. I could make a six prime next roll with my best number and even my worst numbers are very playable. The only thing you 'threaten' to do is anchor up and turn your weak take into a solid take lol.
I have to bring my back checkers around, and you may get to anchor up (anywhere). Even with my gammons weighing in Snowie gives you a borderline take. I'm impressed the readers took this with such ease.
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| 144 | |
| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |
| Cube action equity | |||
| Rollout | Money equity: | 0.585 | |
| 0.9% 23.4% 70.2% 29.8% 6.0% 0.3% | |||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.585 ±0.017, - live cube no double: 0.764 ±0.023, - live cube double take: 0.963 ±0.042. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 540 games (equiv. 18118 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database. | |||
| Evaluations | |||
| 1. | Double, take | 0.952 | |
| 2. | No double | 0.769 | (-0.183) |
| 3. | Double, pass | 1.000 | (+0.048) |
| Proper cube action: Double, take | |||
| Live cube | |||
| 1. | Double, take | 0.963 | |
| 2. | No double | 0.764 | (-0.198) |
| 3. | Double, pass | 1.000 | (+0.037) |
| Proper cube action: Double, take | |||