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More probability

Posted By: stw672
Date: Wednesday, 30 July 2008, at 12:46 p.m.

In Response To: More probability (tansley)

Assuming a false positive 10% of the time then you need to use Bayes Theorem. I think this works out as:

P(woman has cancer) = 0.01

P(woman does not have cancer) = 0.99

P(positive test given the woman has cancer) = 0.9

P(positive test given the woman does not have cancer) = 0.1

P(positive test) = (0.01 X 0.9) + (0.99*0.1) = 0.108

P(woman has cancer given a positive test) = P(positive test given that the woman has cancer) X P(woman has cancer)all divided by P(positive test)

I make this 8.33%

Am I close?

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