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More probability

Posted By: Frigo
Date: Wednesday, 30 July 2008, at 1:06 p.m.

In Response To: More probability (tansley)

Not as likely as one might think. Assume 100 women are tested and as expected one of them has the cancer. That person will be correctly diagnosed 90% of the time. The other 99 individuals will generate on average 9.9 false positives. Therefore, out of this sample the test would indicate 10.8% rate of cancer when the expectation is only 1% So if I am thinking about this correctly, the test is 1/10.8 accurate.

The probability this women has cancer is only 9.25%

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