Rollout

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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 6 February 2007, at 1:02 a.m.

In Response To: Hickey/Stick (Stick)

I played 13/8 3/1 OTB and we only shot the position because Mary was pretty emphatic about 18/13 18/16. I didn't see any reason to leave the shot, take the pressure off her (she's breaking from somewhere next turn and my board is a monster), and even when it 'works' I still have to cleanup next turn and I'm far from *cashing if it does work barely ahead in the race. Human 3 ply lookahead should tell you I play safe now, Mary plays safe next turn (most likely by breaking the 8, possibly from the rear, but that isn't completely safe, I play safe the turn after that, Mary has to leave something, I still come out ahead in the long version.
Money Game
100
98

Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity

1 R 13/8 3/1 0.278

0.2% 9.8% 56.8% 43.2% 2.5% 0.1%

Live cube rollout: 0.243

95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.210 ą0.016, - live cube: 0.243 ą0.031. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 28176 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.

2 R 13/8 6/4 0.262 (-0.017)

0.1% 8.6% 56.6% 43.4% 2.2% 0.0%

Live cube rollout: 0.244

95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.197 ą0.014, - live cube: 0.244 ą0.027. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 27500 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.

3 R 18/13 18/16 0.133 (-0.146)

0.1% 4.2% 55.1% 44.9% 2.1% 0.0%

Live cube rollout: 0.116

95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.125 ą0.012, - live cube: 0.116 ą0.022. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 35242 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.

Money Game
100
98
Board image courtesy of *GO-Figure*

Messages In This Thread

Hickey/Stick
Stick -- Sunday, 4 February 2007, at 6:31 p.m.
- Re: Hickey/Stick
  lucky player -- Sunday, 4 February 2007, at 7:15 p.m.
  - Re: Re: Hickey/Stick
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 4 February 2007, at 7:19 p.m.
- Rollout
  Stick -- Tuesday, 6 February 2007, at 1:02 a.m.

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#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	13/8 3/1	0.278
			0.2% 9.8% 56.8% 43.2% 2.5% 0.1%
			Live cube rollout: 0.243
			95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.210 ą0.016, - live cube: 0.243 ą0.031. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 28176 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
	2	R	13/8 6/4	0.262 (-0.017)
			0.1% 8.6% 56.6% 43.4% 2.2% 0.0%
			Live cube rollout: 0.244
			95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.197 ą0.014, - live cube: 0.244 ą0.027. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 27500 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
	3	R	18/13 18/16	0.133 (-0.146)
			0.1% 4.2% 55.1% 44.9% 2.1% 0.0%
			Live cube rollout: 0.116
			95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.125 ą0.012, - live cube: 0.116 ą0.022. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 35242 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.