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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Hickey/Stick (Stick)
Date: Tuesday, 6 February 2007, at 1:02 a.m.
I played 13/8 3/1 OTB and we only shot the position because Mary was pretty emphatic about 18/13 18/16. I didn't see any reason to leave the shot, take the pressure off her (she's breaking from somewhere next turn and my board is a monster), and even when it 'works' I still have to cleanup next turn and I'm far from *cashing if it does work barely ahead in the race. Human 3 ply lookahead should tell you I play safe now, Mary plays safe next turn (most likely by breaking the 8, possibly from the rear, but that isn't completely safe, I play safe the turn after that, Mary has to leave something, I still come out ahead in the long version.
Money Game 100 98 Board image courtesy of GO-Figure
# Ply Move Equity 1 R 13/8 3/1 0.278 0.2% 9.8% 56.8% 43.2% 2.5% 0.1% Live cube rollout: 0.243 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.210 ±0.016, - live cube: 0.243 ±0.031. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 28176 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database. 2 R 13/8 6/4 0.262 (-0.017) 0.1% 8.6% 56.6% 43.4% 2.2% 0.0% Live cube rollout: 0.244 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.197 ±0.014, - live cube: 0.244 ±0.027. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 27500 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database. 3 R 18/13 18/16 0.133 (-0.146) 0.1% 4.2% 55.1% 44.9% 2.1% 0.0% Live cube rollout: 0.116 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.125 ±0.012, - live cube: 0.116 ±0.022. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 35242 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
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