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probability

Posted By: Gregg Cattanach
Date: Wednesday, 30 July 2008, at 7:09 p.m.

In Response To: probability (Randy)

Randy posts a classic probability question and his answer is correct. One way I have to help people see the Monty Hall problem is to pretend that there are 100 doors instead of 3. If Monty opens 98 doors showing crappy prizes, then most people figure out that the last un-opened door has to be better than the one they started with.

Monty gives up information about the distribution of bad and good prizes every time he opens a door showing a crappy prize. He is not randomly opening them as he knows where the good prize is and keeps it concealed.

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