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Neil v. Stick Novi Finals (Game 12) #50

Posted By: Christian Munk-Christensen
Date: Thursday, 31 July 2008, at 10:14 a.m.

In Response To: Neil v. Stick Novi Finals (Game 12) #50 (Stick)

Ripping 2 off leaves us 7 blot numbers: 61, 51, 66, 55, 44.

But the 3 doubles are only blot numbers when blue dances which happens roughly 2/3 of the time. So effectively we have 6 blot numbers when ripping off 2.

Playing 4/3 with the ace leaves 4 blot numbers: 61, 51.

The question then is if there are sufficient extra gammons in the aggressive play to justify the 2 extra blot numbers. I believe there is because the blot first has to be hit and then we need to dance in order to really lose on the play.

Because the gammons are worth roughly 9% MWC (difference between 100 and 91) I believe Neil should take 2 off.

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