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Re: OLM Tues. Feb. 6th

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Tuesday, 6 February 2007, at 10:57 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Tues. Feb. 6th (Stick)

Up on the bar, matey, and look for an ace.

13/12 leaves 9 shots and 10/9 leaves 10. I think the extra shot is compensated for by the added flexibility. If we play 13/10*, we have lots of chequers 2 and 4 apart. 12/10*/9 also gives us chequers at 1 and 3 separation, so we're bound to have more pointing number next time.

We sure could use some extra points, so 12/10*/9 is my play.

That's my OTB analysis. Now for a bit more.

Best non-hitter looks like 6/3, but I want to gain those 10 pips in such a close race. Weighted average if we hit is 10 * 0.7 - 16 * 0.3 = 2.2 pips. At about 2.5% gwc/pip, that would be 5.5% racing gain from hitting. However, that's not the whole story, because getting hit back puts us in trouble: on the bar against a four-point board must be worth 4 pips, compared to White up against our two point board, worth about 2 pips. Recalculating the weighted average gives (10+2) * 0.7 - (16+4) * 0.3) = 1.4 pips, only about 3.5% racing advantage.

I can't quantify other factors; the flexibility gained by hitting to make new points, the danger of being hit back and gammoned, the potential loss of safe landing spots if White enters deep. It looks closer than I first thought, but I don't know what's best.

Time to fall back on a maxim: if in doubt, play 12/10*/9!

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