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BGonline.org Forums
Re: Stick - Hickey --- from TG to ?
Posted By: stremba In Response To: Stick - Hickey --- from TG to ? (Stick)
Date: Tuesday, 6 February 2007, at 2:54 p.m.
A simple crossover count shows that blue leads with 15 crossovers to 18 for white. That should give blue a pretty good chance of winning in any variation in which he scrambles home without being hit. I would divide blue's possible rolls into 5 categories.
9 rolls (11, 22, 33, 12, 13, and 23) dance. After this, white rates to pick up two crossovers and pull nearly even in the race. The downside for white is that she has less chance of picking up a hit after moving further forward. I would rate this pretty close to an even game after a dance, so give white 4.5 wins.
After 6 rolls (41, 42, and 51), blue enters but stays in white's home board. White rates to gain one crossover in this situation, either by running two crossovers, or by a pick and pass setting blue back one and gaining one. That still leaves white behind by two crossovers, so blue is a small favorite here. I give white 2.5 wins.
After 6 rolls (61, 52, and 43) blue enters and hits white's bar point blot. White is now in some trouble. That rates to put white back at least 5 crossovers, and that's only in the variations in which she gains two crossovers on her roll. 25% of the time she'll dance. I would think white has a pass after being hit, whether or not she dances. I'll give white 1 win in in this category, assuming blue doubles before this roll.
3 rolls (44, 55 and 66) allow blue to enter and clear both of white's checkers. Again, white is obviously in trouble here. If blue doubles this turn, I'll give white 0.5 wins in this category, just to cover variations in which white gets lucky.
Finally, 12 rolls (62, 63, 64, 65, 53, and 54) allow white to enter and run into the outfield. When white hits, she gains two crossovers and is close to even. When white doesn't hit, blue is a big favorite. Since white is about 30% to hit, that gives her ~15% wins. In the other 70%, white will get lucky and pick up some wins, say about 10% for a total of 25% or 3 wins in this category.
Totalling things up, I would give white about 11.5 wins if blue doubles. Therefore, white's take is pretty clear if blue doubles. Blue is edging pretty close to an efficient cube here. Does he have market losers? Yes. Any roll that hits on the 6 point or any big double that runs him home is a market loser. Therefore, it looks like a double/take to me.
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