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Re: OLM Tues. Feb. 6th

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Tuesday, 6 February 2007, at 9:15 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Tues. Feb. 6th (Stick)

If we hit we get hit back 9 times and maybe we can still win 1.5 of them but we should be G'd in 2 of them if not more. G's count half of what wins count in this form of analysis with a gammon cost of .5 so effectively we lose almost 9 of the return hits. How many of the 27 misses do we win ? My guess is just a touch over 16..so adding the fractions maybe we win 16.5 games.

How many do we win if we play safely ? I think we are a slight dog if we play safe (again ignoring the cube for the moment) so maybe we win 17 to 17.5 of 36 games if we play safely. I think it is very slightly correct to play safely and that 6/3 is just a tad better than 8/6 2/1.

I vote for a reluctant 6/3.

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