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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 7 February 2007, at 1:15 a.m.

In Response To: Stick/Weaver -- Got Cube? Want Cube? (Stick)

I wish more people had responded to see if I was the only one who fucked this up. The double was clear to me, the take I was agonizing over. This decision is what took me the most time of anything in the match. Paul actually got up and went and talked to people, got some water, came back, and I was still lost as to what I was doing.

2s, 4s, 5s all hit, 3 blots not including the blot on the ace. His open 6 pt. obviously gives me a lot more game than I'd otherwise have but the thought of losing a G here didn't appeal to me at all. I talked myself into playing "small ball" backgammon, a concept that when applied to backgammon is in all likelyhood flawed for the most part but tough shit, it's what I did. Small ball poker is where I borrowed the term from. It's basically mixing it up in a lot of pots for a small price hoping to hit a big hand and get paid off by some fish when you shouldn't. Transfering that over to bg is probably not sound, but here I didn't want to lose a G (and basically the match, trailing 10-5 Crawford if I do). When the cube gets turned in these situations and it is a take I want to be the one doing the turning.

For money I take in a heartbeat w/no regrets and I can see much more clearly now that he has a lot of work to do to get his position home as my position is pretty solid, cept the 4 blots lol.

Match to 11, Blue leads 6 to 5
Blue(Weaver) on roll. Cube Action?

153
141
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout	Money equity:	0.440
	2.3% 32.7% 58.9% 41.1% 8.3% 0.4%
	95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.440 ±0.015, - live cube no double: 0.584 ±0.029, - live cube double take: 0.621 ±0.044. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 34737 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.
Evaluations
1.	Double, take	0.605
2.	No double	0.561	(-0.044)
3.	Double, pass	1.000	(+0.395)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Live cube
1.	Double, take	0.621
2.	No double	0.584	(-0.037)
3.	Double, pass	1.000	(+0.379)
Proper cube action: Double, take

Messages In This Thread

• Stick/Weaver -- Got Cube? Want Cube?
  Stick -- Tuesday, 6 February 2007, at 12:52 a.m.
  • Re: Stick/Weaver -- Got Cube? Want Cube?
    lucky player -- Tuesday, 6 February 2007, at 1:17 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Wednesday, 7 February 2007, at 1:15 a.m.