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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 7 February 2007, at 1:22 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Tues. Feb. 6th (Stick)

The truth is that hitting just pops your gammons lost up waaaaaaay too much to be correct. You're forced to leave two blots and almost the equivalent of a direct shot even though I'm on the bar. If hit you would need to immediately respond with not only an entering number, but an entering number that either hit back or safetied the other blot. Even then you've lost a lot of ground in the race and I'll continue my attack against the 1 checker if possible. You're still a favorite (plain wins) if you play safe being dead even in the race and owning the cube.


Match to 25, White leads 14 to 10
119
118
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 6/3 0.185
0.0% 2.4% 50.8% 49.2% 4.1% 0.1%
Live cube rollout: 0.194
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.000 ±0.014, - live cube: 0.194 ±0.019. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 27055 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
2 R 12/10*/9 0.114 (-0.071)
0.3% 4.3% 52.2% 47.8% 16.2% 0.5%
Live cube rollout: 0.155
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.077 ±0.018, - live cube: 0.155 ±0.026. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 18244 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.

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