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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 7 February 2007, at 1:30 a.m.

In Response To: Stick - Hickey --- from TG to ? (Stick)

I was playing on before this when I shouldn't have been (probably) so why not cube when I shouldn't too!? At the time I cubed, both Mary & I agreed it was too early [sometimes we both agree it's the wrong move/play but do it anyway =))] and I finished out the game. As I think Neil mentioned a big part of it is my open ace point.

Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
45
54
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.319
0.0% 1.4% 65.3% 34.7% 0.0% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.319 ±0.009, - live cube no redouble: 0.500 ±0.011, - live cube redouble take: 0.385 ±0.022. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 43076 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
Evaluations
1. No redouble 0.515
2. Redouble, take 0.392 (-0.123)
3. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.485)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take20%
Live cube
1. No redouble 0.500
2. Redouble, take 0.385 (-0.114)
3. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.500)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take19%

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