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BGonline.org Forums
post crawford cube / RO info at end
Posted By: bob koca In Response To: post crawford cube (neilkaz)
Date: Thursday, 14 August 2008, at 2:51 a.m.
This is from the match with GUS, I anagrammed the names and changed to an equivalent score to disguise it. Gus had just rolled a joker and then I fanned to get to it. I heard that most there thought it a fairly easy take but RO shows a pass. I was figuring I would get a mediocre backgame but maybe worse and figured about 1/3 wins and 1/3 gammon losses. I was down to about a minute reserve time and decided within the 15 seconds I think.
After rolling the joker and my fan Gus mumbled something like "I did it to myself". Perhaps he thought it was a take and was trying to poker me, but I think he realized he had messed up.
One strange aspect of error rate calcuations is his cube play that game was worse than the optimal immediate cube. However his delay strategy actually helped his error rate by giving him more close or actual cube decisions increasing the denominator. In addition to using gnu style instead of Snowie style another change I suggest is that instead of only considering unforced moves only consider moves in which equity is at stake. Beyond giving positive credit for not doubling optional doubles this would also essentially end the analysis in a gin position. It seemed to me like there were positions in the 16 person shootout that were rolled to the finish way beyond the gin point than one would nromally see.
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Cube analysis Rollout cubeless equity +0.549935 (Money: +0.683713)
Cubeful equities: 1. Double, pass +1.000000 2. Double, take +1.106203 ( +0.106203) 3. No double +0.895598 ( -0.104402) Proper cube action: Double, pass Rollout details: Centered 1-cube: 0.671185 0.354568 0.048302 - 0.328815 0.053293 0.008233 CL +0.549935 CF +0.895598 [0.006666 0.006486 0.013084 - 0.006666 0.003896 0.006766 CL 0.029700 CF 0.024372] Player Taco Broker owns 2-cube: 0.671121 0.356938 0.098541 - 0.328879 0.062474 0.008550 CL +1.106203 CF +1.106203 [0.002818 0.002941 0.008002 - 0.002818 0.005059 0.001614 CL 0.008843 CF 0.008843] Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 761 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 830847532 and quasi-random dice Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.1 (min. 72 games) Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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