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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 7 February 2007, at 1:36 a.m.

In Response To: I bet you pick one of the top 2 plays (Stick)

It's too tough to clean up after slotting the 4 pt., you have to roll something perfect next roll whereas if you bring them both in you've taken care of most of your problems immediately if you get away with it. The gap on the four point shouldn't create too many problems during the bearoff (esp. since White has to run with 1 and you may get a chance to attack, you have plenty of spares). My opponent slotted the 4 pt. at the time.

Money Game
86
66
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 8/2 8/6 0.271
0.0% 1.8% 68.7% 31.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Live cube rollout: 0.268
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.388 ±0.008, - live cube: 0.268 ±0.010. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 62817 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
2 R 8/2 6/4 0.171 (-0.100)
0.0% 1.6% 65.3% 34.7% 1.0% 0.0%
Live cube rollout: 0.182
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.313 ±0.010, - live cube: 0.182 ±0.013. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 37174 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.

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