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Interesting Finals Settlement

Posted By: Coolrey
Date: Thursday, 21 August 2008, at 1:07 p.m.

In Response To: Interesting Finals Settlement (Stick)

Hey Stick, we should have bet on this one! Don't forget to group the gammons and BGs together, that is one source of error.

My Snowie (cubeless cuz I won't be redoubling) rollout showed me winning 41% and losing 59%. 30.3% gammons and 2.1% backgammons lost. So I win the match 41% now, and 30% of 59-32.4. So, 26.6 x .30 = 7.98% more wins after losing a single game.

41 + 7.98 = 48.98 (call it 49%) wins.

I got 50% of the money, so that was good for me. Winner got 5K and loser 3K, so splitting was now worth $1000 to the loser, and cost the winner the same amount. 1% of $1000 is $10, so I should have gotten 990 instead of 1010, a $20 swing. Did I make $20, or $10? That always confuses me.

I probably could've gotten more equity out of playing it out against Alan Martin than that so:

A: Why was I anxious to hedge?

B: Why did Stick hedge even with AM also?

C: Why did I agree to hedge $600 even at the start of the match?

Messages In This Thread

• Interesting Finals Settlement
  Stick -- Thursday, 21 August 2008, at 9:33 a.m.
  • Interesting Finals Settlement
    Coolrey -- Thursday, 21 August 2008, at 1:07 p.m.
    • Interesting Finals Settlement
      Stick -- Thursday, 21 August 2008, at 1:22 p.m.
      • Interesting Finals Settlement
        Coolrey -- Thursday, 21 August 2008, at 4:42 p.m.
        • Interesting Finals Settlement
          Stick -- Thursday, 21 August 2008, at 5:03 p.m.