| |
BGonline.org Forums
Ray gets his money back #3
Posted By: Evan In Response To: Ray gets his money back #3 (Stick)
Date: Friday, 22 August 2008, at 4:36 p.m.
If we take 2 off now, we only end up with 5 off, not seriously more helpful than 3 off. It's post crawford and we have a huge lead. White's timing is such that he is not likely to have to abandon his anchor before we either clear or leave a shot. So, our goal here seems to be to be ready to clear the 6point as soon as possible. If we wait to give a possible shot until later, white's board will be more threatening to us with a later hit (bar point made, extra attackers on 3 spots instead of just the 4pt should we escape on the 1pt following a hit, or he could also make the 1pt and close his home).
2/off 1/off gives us 5 off the board. It also leaves us with only 4 clearing rolls next turn. Also, our 6 shot-giving rolls will still exist. I've tried calculating our bad outcomes to 3 rolls from here as a result of this decision and end up with a little over 12% negative outcomes (where we end up on the bar, not figuring out the chances to win from there).
6/3 gives us only 3 off the board, but it allows us to clear the 6pt with rolls next turn, match over in all of these situations, barring 6 consecutive useful doublets by white and no doublets by us. Despite it giving 12 shot-providing situations next turn, the opponent HAS to hit..., or have us roll the 11 (or possibly 11 or 22) on the subsequent roll which he then has to hit (0.39% for this combined chance). So, we end up with almost exactly 11% negative outcomes from here. I'll play the wimpy-looking 6/3.
I have been in situations like this, where delaying the bad shot often results in an extra blot being exposed in the process that can be picked up later. When we move in a way that most likely only exposes one blot it seems to solidify the minimized negative outcomes from moving 6/3 now.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.