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Ray gets his money back #3

Posted By: garyo
Date: Friday, 22 August 2008, at 5:40 p.m.

In Response To: Ray gets his money back #3 (neilkaz)

from starting rollout, i don't think you're gonna get statsig on this one. the differences are looking to be very tiny and ever changing. losing the race outright is highly improbably(5+ sets of 66, unanswered), so 2 off loses it's glamour there. for white to win, he'll have to hit AND contain --- 2 off looks to win a few more of those races. 6/3, while leaving more immediate blotters, it leaves more immediate winners. everything that doesn't blot (except 22 or 11) wins. noting that blotting is not equivalent to losing. after 2off, our only immediate winners are 66,55,44,33 --- everything that doesn't blot, just repeats the same situation a roll(or so) later. so, it comes down to residual racing & residual risk (2off) vs immediate winners & residual winners (ie. you blot and aren't hit)

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