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WSOB #4 RO results and comments

Posted By: David Montgomery
Date: Friday, 22 August 2008, at 7:10 p.m.

In Response To: WSOB #4 RO results and comments (bob koca)

Below is a completely insignificant cubeless rollout with 20(2) .01 better than 20 9. I'm very skeptical that 20 9 gets a benefit from the cube that is .04 or so greater than 20(2).

My guess would be that 20(2) is right, or if it's wrong, it's a very small error.

The score (after 0 games) is: top 0, bottom 0

Move number 3: top to play 54

top	208
bottom	180
Position ID: 4Dn4gCjgGTwgWg Match ID: MIESAAAAAAAA

• top moves bar/20 13/9

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		-0.265
	0.424 0.089 0.003 - 0.576 0.191 0.014
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	-0.337
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+1.337
3.	Double, take	-0.922	-0.585
Proper cube action:		No double, beaver (30.4%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	bar/20 24/20	-0.104
			0.468 0.105 0.003 - 0.532 0.144 0.004 -0.104 0.004 0.004 0.001 - 0.004 0.004 0.001 0.013
			Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
			560 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 830759898 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeless prune
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune
•	2	R	bar/20 13/9	-0.114 ( -0.011)
			0.468 0.115 0.006 - 0.532 0.162 0.009 -0.114 0.004 0.003 0.001 - 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.014
			Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
			559 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 830759898 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeless prune
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune
	3	2	bar/20 6/2*	-0.144 ( -0.040)
			0.472 0.108 0.005 - 0.528 0.171 0.009
	4	2	bar/21 13/8	-0.197 ( -0.093)
			0.459 0.115 0.006 - 0.541 0.178 0.013
	5	2	bar/21 6/1*	-0.213 ( -0.110)
			0.458 0.110 0.006 - 0.542 0.187 0.015

Messages In This Thread

• WSOB #4
  bob koca -- Friday, 15 August 2008, at 4:47 a.m.
  • WSOB #4
    Stick -- Friday, 15 August 2008, at 4:56 a.m.
    • WSOB #4
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 15 August 2008, at 5:13 a.m.
  • WSOB #4
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 19 August 2008, at 5:53 p.m.
    • WSOB #4 RO results and comments
      bob koca -- Thursday, 21 August 2008, at 3:46 a.m.
      • WSOB #4 RO results and comments
        Stick -- Thursday, 21 August 2008, at 4:13 a.m.
        • WSOB #4 RO results and comments
          Neil Robins -- Thursday, 21 August 2008, at 8:05 a.m.
      • WSOB #4 RO results and comments
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 21 August 2008, at 9:37 p.m.
      • WSOB #4 RO results and comments
        David Montgomery -- Friday, 22 August 2008, at 7:10 p.m.