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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 9 February 2007, at 12:35 p.m.

In Response To: Hickey/Stick (Stick)

At the time I thought the recube was early, it was, but not by much. Not enough market loss and too far down in the race to justify a cube just yet. My worst entering number is 2-1, everything else holds, and there isn't enough coverage/attacks if I should enter quickly.

Money Game
Blue(Hickey) on roll. Cube Action?
66
117
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.441
0.1% 3.4% 72.8% 27.2% 5.0% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.441 ±0.011, - live cube no redouble: 0.767 ±0.018, - live cube redouble take: 0.735 ±0.026. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 37089 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
Evaluations
1. No redouble 0.753
2. Redouble, take 0.683 (-0.070)
3. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.247)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take22%
Live cube
1. No redouble 0.767
2. Redouble, take 0.735 (-0.032)
3. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.233)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take12%

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