WSOB #6/ RO result and comments

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WSOB #6/ RO result and comments

Posted By: bob koca
Date: Sunday, 24 August 2008, at 3:15 p.m.

In Response To: WSOB #6 (bob koca)

2592 games and way too close too call. If anyone wants to extend let me know and I will email the file. gnu-2ply had it as a small double.
The previous roll was also a tight decision. gun 2-ply has it as a double by .04 It looks to me to be quite a bit better though. I am surprised I didn't double it over the board.
The score (after 0 games) is: Bob Koca 0, Falafel 0 (match to 3 points)
Move number 9: Bob Koca to play 22

Bob Koca 148

Falafel 161
Position ID: Q3PwACOw5+ADQA Match ID: MAFpAAAAAAAA

• Bob Koca moves bar/21 13/11(2)

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity +0.446123 (Money: +0.413764)

Cubeful equities:

1. No double +0.734174

2. Double, pass +1.000000 +0.265826

3. Double, take +0.727120 -0.007053

Proper cube action: No double, take (2.6%)

Rollout details

Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful

Centered 1-cube 0.659443 0.167834 0.015847 - 0.340557 0.084697 0.004107 +0.446123 +0.734174

Standard error 0.000886 0.001514 0.001508 - 0.000886 0.001714 0.000845 0.002540 0.006429

Player Falafel owns 2-cube 0.662524 0.169943 0.027319 - 0.337476 0.089808 0.007682 +1.085251 +0.727120

Standard error 0.001343 0.001952 0.002206 - 0.001343 0.002349 0.001264 0.008969 0.010622

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 830710605 and quasi-random dice

Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.1 (min. 72 games)

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

# Ply Move Equity

• 1 2 bar/21 13/11(2) +0.709667

0.665658 0.146059 0.004718 - 0.334342 0.087219 0.001262

2 2 bar/23 13/11(3) +0.684785 ( -0.024882)

0.659135 0.162267 0.005051 - 0.340865 0.089572 0.001358

3 2 bar/23 13/11(2) 8/6 +0.624359 ( -0.085308)

0.642427 0.167540 0.005459 - 0.357573 0.098709 0.001628

4 0 bar/21 13/11 8/6 +0.505260 ( -0.204407)

0.626908 0.159141 0.005029 - 0.373092 0.107879 0.001899

5 0 bar/21 13/9 +0.502474 ( -0.207193)

0.625243 0.162539 0.005627 - 0.374757 0.109899 0.002079

The score (after 0 games) is: Bob Koca 0, Falafel 0 (match to 3 points)
Move number 7: Bob Koca to play 25

Bob Koca 150

Falafel 148
Position ID: g+vgASKw5+ABAw Match ID: MAF1AAAAAAAA

• Bob Koca moves 20/18*/13

Alert: missed double ( -0.038498)!

Cube decision

2-ply cubeless equity +0.510140 (Money: +0.430935)

0.645182 0.209788 0.007817 - 0.354818 0.075882 0.001152

Cubeful equities:

1. Double, take +0.730319

2. Double, pass +1.000000 +0.269681

3. No double +0.691821 -0.038498

Proper cube action: Double, take

# Ply Move Equity

• 1 2 20/18*/13 +0.848092

0.686193 0.193037 0.009552 - 0.313807 0.078723 0.001238

2 2 20/18* 13/8 +0.743193 ( -0.104899)

0.660779 0.200739 0.010223 - 0.339221 0.092648 0.001648

3 2 20/18* 20/15 +0.677733 ( -0.170359)

0.654778 0.186473 0.010101 - 0.345222 0.103929 0.002032

4 2 20/18* 6/1* +0.674716 ( -0.173376)

0.645148 0.213380 0.008781 - 0.354852 0.100794 0.002528

5 0 13/8 6/4* +0.580285 ( -0.267807)

0.628591 0.193830 0.007740 - 0.371409 0.082450 0.001422

Bob Koca	148

Falafel	161
Position ID: `Q3PwACOw5+ADQA` Match ID: `MAFpAAAAAAAA`

#	Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/21 13/11(2)	+0.709667
	0.665658 0.146059 0.004718 - 0.334342 0.087219 0.001262
	2	2	bar/23 13/11(3)	+0.684785 ( -0.024882)
	0.659135 0.162267 0.005051 - 0.340865 0.089572 0.001358
	3	2	bar/23 13/11(2) 8/6	+0.624359 ( -0.085308)
	0.642427 0.167540 0.005459 - 0.357573 0.098709 0.001628
	4	0	bar/21 13/11 8/6	+0.505260 ( -0.204407)
	0.626908 0.159141 0.005029 - 0.373092 0.107879 0.001899
	5	0	bar/21 13/9	+0.502474 ( -0.207193)
	0.625243 0.162539 0.005627 - 0.374757 0.109899 0.002079

Bob Koca	150

Falafel	148
Position ID: `g+vgASKw5+ABAw` Match ID: `MAF1AAAAAAAA`

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity	+0.510140	(Money: +0.430935)
	0.645182 0.209788 0.007817 - 0.354818 0.075882 0.001152
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.730319
2.	Double, pass	+1.000000	+0.269681
3.	No double	+0.691821	-0.038498
Proper cube action:	Double, take

#	Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	20/18*/13	+0.848092
	0.686193 0.193037 0.009552 - 0.313807 0.078723 0.001238
	2	2	20/18* 13/8	+0.743193 ( -0.104899)
	0.660779 0.200739 0.010223 - 0.339221 0.092648 0.001648
	3	2	20/18* 20/15	+0.677733 ( -0.170359)
	0.654778 0.186473 0.010101 - 0.345222 0.103929 0.002032
	4	2	20/18* 6/1*	+0.674716 ( -0.173376)
	0.645148 0.213380 0.008781 - 0.354852 0.100794 0.002528
	5	0	13/8 6/4*	+0.580285 ( -0.267807)
	0.628591 0.193830 0.007740 - 0.371409 0.082450 0.001422

Messages In This Thread

WSOB #6
bob koca -- Saturday, 23 August 2008, at 4:08 a.m.
- WSOB #6
  Stick -- Saturday, 23 August 2008, at 7:59 a.m.
  - WSOB #6
    Stick -- Saturday, 23 August 2008, at 2:51 p.m.
    - WSOB #6
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 23 August 2008, at 2:54 p.m.
      - WSOB #6
        Stick -- Saturday, 23 August 2008, at 3:04 p.m.
        
        WSOB #6
        Coolrey -- Sunday, 24 August 2008, at 2:23 p.m.
        
        WSOB #6
        Stick -- Sunday, 24 August 2008, at 3:37 p.m.
        
        WSOB #6
        garyo -- Sunday, 24 August 2008, at 4:29 p.m.
- WSOB #6
  Neil Robins -- Saturday, 23 August 2008, at 8:37 a.m.
- WSOB #6
  neilkaz -- Saturday, 23 August 2008, at 2:38 p.m.
  - WSOB #6
    Ian Dunstan -- Sunday, 24 August 2008, at 9:19 a.m.
- WSOB #6/ RO result and comments
  bob koca -- Sunday, 24 August 2008, at 3:15 p.m.
  - WSOB #6/ RO result and comments
    Stick -- Sunday, 24 August 2008, at 9:28 p.m.

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