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WSOB 7/ RO results and comments.

Posted By: bob koca
Date: Sunday, 24 August 2008, at 10:32 p.m.

In Response To: WSOB 7 (bob koca)

Anything besides 21/11 is a big error. He played 13/8 13/8. What I guess happend is that he saw that if I hit is he worse off with that move and thought that if I fanned it was a very efficient cube. The cube though is not efficient at all and is an easy take. But I had to think about it. My first impulse was fairly easy take. But then I remembered all the times in my practice sessions the previous month where I got dinged for not giving not importance to being on the bar. But then I saw that I would hit the blot enough. From one of Robertie's advanced backgammon books I remembered advice about if one main winning chance gives a good shot there is likely to be enough elsewhere. Then I also heard Trice's advice in my head about being hard to blitz with three men back. I think it was from Boot Camp and was a position that I had gotten wrong when reading it for the first time.

---

The score (after 0 games) is: Bob Koca 0, Falafel 0 (match to 3 points)

Move number 14: Falafel to play 55

Bob Koca	138
Falafel	148
Position ID: cOc4AwhjzeAAIw Match ID: cIl2AAAAAAAA

• Falafel moves 13/3*(2)

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		-0.254346	(Money: -0.244905)
	0.383833 0.122883 0.001690 - 0.616167 0.132463 0.004681
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	-0.431654
2.	Double, pass	+1.000000	+1.431654
3.	Double, take	-1.211361	-0.779707
Proper cube action:		No double, take (35.3%)

Alert: very bad move ( -0.225)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.498)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	21/11 8/3*(2)	+0.110668
			0.491249 0.233507 0.010622 - 0.508751 0.161208 0.020744 +0.031827 +0.110668 0.001511 0.003089 0.001919 - 0.001511 0.003146 0.002341 0.004668 0.012351
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1386 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 830710605 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.1 (min. 72 games)
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	21/16(2) 8/3*(2)	-0.058838 ( -0.169505)
			0.486788 0.179691 0.016746 - 0.513212 0.133953 0.009561 +0.050225 -0.058838 0.005984 0.006558 0.013919 - 0.005984 0.008069 0.002407 0.015818 0.033259
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			91 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 830710605 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.1 (min. 72 games)
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	3	R	13/3*(2)	-0.114417 ( -0.225084)
			0.450148 0.207600 0.010927 - 0.549852 0.134676 0.005548 -0.002444 -0.114417 0.004980 0.006087 0.007733 - 0.004980 0.007203 0.000503 0.013436 0.036440
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			72 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 830710605 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.1 (min. 72 games)
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	0	21/16 13/3* 8/3	-0.115977 ( -0.226645)
			0.464554 0.221637 0.004590 - 0.535446 0.196265 0.017774
	5	0	13/3* 8/3(2)	-0.256141 ( -0.366809)
			0.422951 0.158523 0.002002 - 0.577049 0.140939 0.003734

The score (after 0 games) is: Bob Koca 0, Falafel 0 (match to 3 points)

Move number 16: Falafel on roll, cube decision?

Bob Koca	141
Falafel	128
Position ID: cOc4A0CzNYMAIw Match ID: cAlgAAAAAAAA

• Falafel doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.473317	(Money: +0.374753)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.597606
2.	Double, pass	+1.000000	+0.402394
3.	No double	+0.539938	-0.057669
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.581551 0.318159 0.004217 - 0.418449 0.101507 0.009218 +0.473317 +0.539938 Standard error 0.001487 0.002318 0.000773 - 0.001487 0.002110 0.001458 0.004620 0.009906 Player Bob Koca owns 2-cube 0.591886 0.331035 0.006451 - 0.408114 0.126068 0.020662 +1.124307 +0.597606 Standard error 0.002205 0.004058 0.001285 - 0.002205 0.005911 0.003199 0.014637 0.019188
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
917 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 830710605 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.1 (min. 72 games)
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• WSOB 7
  bob koca -- Saturday, 23 August 2008, at 4:15 a.m.
  • WSOB 7
    Stick -- Saturday, 23 August 2008, at 8:07 a.m.
    • WSOB 7
      bob koca -- Sunday, 24 August 2008, at 3:16 p.m.
  • WSOB 7
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 23 August 2008, at 2:30 p.m.
  • WSOB 7/ RO results and comments.
    bob koca -- Sunday, 24 August 2008, at 10:32 p.m.