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Rollout started ...

Posted By: Mislav Radica
Date: Monday, 25 August 2008, at 8:13 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Mon. Aug. 25th (Stick)

We don't want to hit lose with 5/off 4/1 when Stick has five point board, so choice is between 5/off 3/off and 5/2 4/off. Two off leaves 63 53 43 32 total eight and one off leaves 65 64 54 total six bloting numbers next roll. Stick needs six crossovers to avoid gammon but need 30 pips in gammon save race which is 30/8=3.75 or about four rolls. After two off we still have nine crossovers which is five rolls if we roll perfecta without doublets. After one off we need ten crossovers which is also five rolls. With cube already turned we like to play more aggressive for gammons but with such lead in match we are less inclined to risk and miss plain wins. I think gammons are not so likely and Stick is favorite to avoid it so there is no need for risk. I vote for play which leaves less bloting numbers next turn.

5/2 4/off

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