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OLM Mon. Aug. 25th

Posted By: Stein Kulseth
Date: Monday, 25 August 2008, at 10:13 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Mon. Aug. 25th (Stick)

Often it is right to risk a little to increase gammons, but here I choose to save 2 shots by playing 5/2 4/off, for these smallish reasons:

  • A gammon is still somewhat of a longshot. If the gammon were closer, the extra checker off would be more likely to make the difference
  • In many similar cases, an additional plus for pigging it is having one more checker off if hit. Here, looking at next turn - accounting for the majority of hits, we will blot by taking only one off after pigging, but after taking two off after playing safe; so we will still have 7 off when hit.
  • Taking just one off leaves us quite flexible, which should be more safe and also good for the gammon
  • Taking just one off leaves us even, so some of the perfect rolls that give us the gammon might give the gammon anyway

An additinal plus for the pigging play is that the bad blotting variations then hit on the ace, which may give even some more gammons, but then again, the blot may be harder to cover or lift, so it may also then be hit in later turns after a dance. Not sure which way this affects the decision.

All in all, I vote for the safer play.

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