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OLM Tues. Aug. 26th

Posted By: motiv4u
Date: Tuesday, 26 August 2008, at 9:20 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Tues. Aug. 26th (Stick)

6 away - 12 away. stick holds the 2-cube.

the two moves i see:

2/off(2) while hitting. rough view twice as many gammon chances, but gammon stays under 20% (correct?). if stick enters with a 1 or dances: 65, 64, 54 leave a blot on 4; 62, 52, 42 also give a shot. sticks 16 rolls make it safe all 6x 5x, but not 61 51), sticks 20 rolls plus our 12 leave a blot (wich he still has to hit). 16/36 (4/9)= safe. 20/36 * 12/36 ~= 1/5 for a shot.

2/1(2) while hitting, 4/1. if stick dances (5x 6x) 66, 55, 44 leave a shot on 4. 20/36 * 3/36 ~= 5%. the only disadvantage: the high doubles (leaving a shot here) would hugely favorize us to win a gammon if played the other move. if hit, this move does not give stick an obvious recube: 5 checkers left for us.

i choose 2/off(2)* taking the extra gammon chances (although i guess at this score 2/1(2) 4/1 will be better)

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