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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 12 February 2007, at 7:03 p.m.

In Response To: Weaver/Stick (Stick)

I think I didn't think it through clearly enough and I picked up 7/5 during the match. I thought it was the same amount of covers, why leave the extra fly shots, and it puts a spare in a good place. I should be a bit more worried about my flexibility on the other side of the board, the opportunity to cover the 3 pt. with a different builder and still have my bar point slotted (or get lucky and make them both immediately.


Match to 11, White leads 7 to 5
106
148
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 20/18 4/3* 0.158
0.7% 16.7% 56.3% 43.7% 20.1% 0.8%
Live cube rollout: 0.174
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.090 ±0.016, - live cube: 0.174 ±0.034. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 29915 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.
* 2 R 7/5 4/3* 0.104 (-0.053)
0.6% 16.2% 54.1% 45.9% 16.5% 0.4%
Live cube rollout: 0.067
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.081 ±0.014, - live cube: 0.067 ±0.030. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 36988 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.
3 R 23/21 4/3* 0.044 (-0.113)
0.6% 13.6% 53.7% 46.3% 18.3% 0.7%
Live cube rollout: 0.031
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.027 ±0.027, - live cube: 0.031 ±0.054. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 9301 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, seed 1, with race database.

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