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Rollout etc

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 31 August 2008, at 5:34 p.m.

In Response To: As usual I left a double shot (neilkaz)

OTB I judged this to be a technical toss up so I passed. It seems that my mental estimates of G's lost, and games won were quite accurate, but I somewhat underestimate my recube vig. Note that this game is more than a 22-14 parley as I can still lose a race when missed and also can lose a G, which does matter somewhat. Had a known it was a .944 take, I'd have taken. My opp is playing very well this weekend and is 5-0.

The score (after 0 games) is: Steve Brown 6, Neil 3 (match to 9 points)

Move number 4: Steve Brown on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: Steve Brown 78, Neil 53
Position ID: v3cAQgBtuwMGAA Match ID: MAEgAWAAGAAA

• Steve Brown doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.6663	(Money: +0.6378)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.9442
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0558
3.	No double	+0.6496	-0.2946
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7306 0.1770 0.0049 - 0.2694 0.0054 0.0000 +0.6663 +0.6496 Standard error 0.0002 0.0007 0.0002 - 0.0002 0.0001 0.0000 0.0010 0.0014 Player Neil owns 2-cube 0.7362 0.1772 0.0128 - 0.2638 0.0041 0.0000 +1.2977 +0.9442 Standard error 0.0002 0.0009 0.0008 - 0.0002 0.0001 0.0000 0.0015 0.0019
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
9560 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 831732736 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• As usual I left a double shot
  neilkaz -- Saturday, 30 August 2008, at 11:51 p.m.
  • As usual I left a double shot
    Stick -- Saturday, 30 August 2008, at 11:52 p.m.
    • As usual I left a double shot
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 31 August 2008, at 7:26 a.m.
  • As usual I left a double shot
    John Little -- Sunday, 31 August 2008, at 8:57 a.m.
  • As usual I left a double shot
    alex213 -- Sunday, 31 August 2008, at 11:57 a.m.
    • oups i din't see the score *NM*
      alex213 -- Sunday, 31 August 2008, at 11:59 a.m.
  • As usual I left a double shot
    Marty Storer -- Sunday, 31 August 2008, at 12:10 p.m.
  • Rollout etc
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 31 August 2008, at 5:34 p.m.