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4 ply and short rollout

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 1 September 2008, at 3:26 p.m.

In Response To: GSish 3rd roll play (neilkaz)

I OTB I hit two with the pure 6/5x 14/10 being a close 2nd. Hitting two is OK even at score as I lead in the race and preserve outfield diversification and have a good 6 from the roof if hit with an ace. The key is to avoid the sucky stacky 24/20 14/13 here.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 3, Neil 8 (match to 9 points, Crawford game)

Move number 4: Neil to play 14


1O ' ' ' '5X '4X ' '1O5O

1X ' ' '1X5O '3O ' ' '4X

Pip counts: gnubg 158, Neil 157
Position ID: 4PPgASHgc/AFIA Match ID: 8IkwATAAQAAA

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 6/5*/1* -0.1561
0.50850.21410.0192-0.49150.13280.0036 -0.1561 -0.1561
0.00310.01260.0046-0.00310.00320.0010 0.0074 0.0074
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
417 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 831565717 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 14/10 6/5* -0.1768 ( -0.0207)
0.49890.17140.0244-0.50110.13360.0074 -0.1768 -0.1768
0.00410.01060.0053-0.00410.00340.0024 0.0097 0.0097
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
416 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 831565717 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R 24/20 14/13 -0.2185 ( -0.0625)
0.48480.14270.0194-0.51520.14430.0051 -0.2185 -0.2185
0.00350.01040.0052-0.00350.00330.0015 0.0079 0.0079
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
416 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 831565717 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
4 4 24/20 6/5* -0.1745 ( -0.0184)
0.5008 0.1051 0.0038 - 0.4992 0.1350 0.0045
5 4 13/9 6/5* -0.1837 ( -0.0276)
0.5058 0.1335 0.0049 - 0.4942 0.1495 0.0073
6 4 14/9 -0.2169 ( -0.0608)
0.4815 0.1149 0.0036 - 0.5185 0.1379 0.0040
7 4 13/8 -0.2318 ( -0.0758)
0.4786 0.1025 0.0031 - 0.5214 0.1451 0.0036

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