As soon as I saw this cube I was pretty unhappy to be facing it because I knew Sax was a big favorite and I had a chance to make a big error here. Even at first glance it looked close to me. Some people thought it was a giant pass, some thought it was an easy take, some thought it could go either way. I spent a few minutes thinking about this one.
I thought this was extremely borderline. Let's start with some certainties: 1) Sax will leave me a shot with 12 numbers 2) Hitting a shot makes me a favorite, and is the main variation 3) There are, in fact, other variations besides hitting a shot. I could roll boxes or fives, or Sax could miss with several 3s or aces. If I come in and roll, say, 4s or 3s, and Sax misses a couple times, I can still win. Also, his set of aces or threes may not be working for him, depending on how he rolls.
All in all I estimated my winning chances right around 15%. I need 15.5% in theory to take this, but if it's close to 15%, I am taking vs. Steve Sax. I will drop this in a heartbeat vs. an intermediate. As it turns out, I win 14%, so I was off by 1%. Can Sax make up 1.5% ME against me from -1, -5? Probably, since he is a pretty strong player, but I may not be as bad as people think. I think, knowing that I win 13.85%, I will still take this cube playing against Steve.
The score (after 0 games) is: Steve Sax 6, Matt Cohn-Geier 4 (match to 9 points)
Move number 5: Steve Sax to play 53
| Steve Sax | 27 |
|---|---|
| |
| Matt Cohn-Geier | 36 |
Position ID: fwMAALqfAwAAAA Match ID: AYEuAWAAIAAA | |
• Steve Sax doubles
| Cube decision | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rollout cubeless equity | +0.71590 | (Money: +0.71590 +0.71590) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cubeful equities: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1. | Double, pass | +1.00000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2. | Double, take | +1.10002 | +0.10002 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3. | No double | +0.81453 | -0.18547 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Proper cube action: | Redouble, pass | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rollout details | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1484624 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 3657846199 and quasi-random dice | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
So I take, Steve rolls a good number, 42, and I roll boxes from the roof. Steve's now a bare favorite at 54% or so. Unfortunately, he doesn't cooperate and miss for me, and I don't roll a set, and I'm down to my last breath, when that roll that's been winning and losing games for me all weekend comes out.
The score (after 0 games) is: Steve Sax 6, Matt Cohn-Geier 4 (match to 9 points)
Move number 19: Matt Cohn-Geier to play 55
| Steve Sax | 2 |
|---|---|
| |
| Matt Cohn-Geier | 4 |
Position ID: AwAAeAAAAAAAAA Match ID: Q4k2AWAAIAAA | |
I thought this would be my biggest bad beat of the tournament. It wasn't; the match against Neil was, although there I'm not sure who was putting the bad beat on whom.