| |
BGonline.org Forums
3rd roll pos. (54, 61, 42)
Posted By: David Rockwell In Response To: 3rd roll pos. (54, 61, 42) (pontiac)
Date: Thursday, 4 September 2008, at 6:56 p.m.
Stick and I looked at a series of similar positions in Madison. The original sequence was 52S, 54S, 42. Making the 5 point was correct in this and most similar positions. I believe that our position is sufficiently close to the one posted that the same conclusion will hold.
I haven't checked any of this analsys yet, but am relatively confident it will hold based on the analysis I did of the other position. The value of making the four point or the five point here is similar after most of white's responding rolls. There should be small to moderate differences which are largely offsetting other than the rolls listed below.
However, making the four point has no immediate effect on play. 3-3 and 5-3 will be played on the other side of the board anyway, so the four point doesn't block anything this coming roll. The only big swing in favor of making the four point comes on 64 where the blot on the 11 point is hit after 24-20, 13-11.
However, making the five point dodges POH rolls of 11, 22, 31, 33, 44 & 55 and prevents the opponent from making the five point on all of them except 55. These rolls give the edge to 24-20, 13-11. Making the five point has an immediate effect on play while making the four point does not.
I find this pattern is often true when inspecting the choices of two plays in the opening. Subsequent rolls which don't do anything remarkable have similar equities which are often offsetting. The better play is the one which has more huge swing rolls in its favor. Immediate impact trumps long term effect. When faced with a choice of two attractive plays, look to see which one has more favorable swing rolls.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.