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-2,-4 backgame cube activity - ROLLOUT

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Sunday, 7 September 2008, at 1:22 a.m.

In Response To: -2,-4 backgame cube activity - ROLLOUT (Keene)

I was the one who did the doubling here, and the gammon is most certainly not saved for black/blue, white already has 6 checkers off.

I think Phillippe's point is that with the gammon already saved for White, there's nothing to be gained by not doubling. The only reason not doubling is such a small error is because it will generally just be D/P on the next roll anyway. Waiting to get a stronger position is actually even worse because 1) you give your opponent the opportunity to get a joker and 2) if opp is making a huge blunder by taking now and then you get him to pass, you've lost out on some .370 of equity. The only way to make ND profitable is if you think you can weaken your position a bit, while your opp still has a big pass, and then still get opp to take...not worth the risk IMO.

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