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Re: Stick/Weaver

Posted By: stremba
Date: Wednesday, 14 February 2007, at 2:38 p.m.

In Response To: Stick/Weaver (Stick)

The hit with 24/20* looks obvious, with the best three being 8/5. Having found the best hitting play, I'll look for the best non-hitting play. The problem is that there aren't a lot of good non-hitting plays here. If blue is willing to risk a double shot with the hitting play, he should be willing to risk a double shot with a non-hitting play, so I would look at 8/5 8/4 as a non-hitting alternative. Also, 13/9 13/10 might be considered, or 13/9 24/21. I would reject these two, however, because breaking the midpoint would isolate our straggler too much. Looking at 8/5 8/4, it actually has less risk than the hitting play, since 23 rolls (all 5's and 2's plus 11 and 41) hit after the hitting play, but only 20 rolls (all 1's and 2's) hit after the non-hitting play. The non-hitting play slots two key points and likely leads to a good prime and a cube when not hit. There is the risk that both blots will get hit, but that's only a 1/18 shot. Usually when only one is hit, blue can cover the other. Since the hitting play leads to such a high risk of a return shot, the main advantage of the hit, the racing gain, is at least partly nullified. Therefore, I think the non-hitting play of 8/5 8/4 is best, although I'll admit that I'd have a tough time playing that OTB.

Messages In This Thread

• Stick/Weaver
  Stick -- Tuesday, 13 February 2007, at 9:48 p.m.
  • Re: Stick/Weaver
    DC-Ohio -- Tuesday, 13 February 2007, at 11:41 p.m.
  • Re: Stick/Weaver
    Ian Shaw -- Wednesday, 14 February 2007, at 12:47 p.m.
  • Re: Stick/Weaver
    stremba -- Wednesday, 14 February 2007, at 2:38 p.m.