BGonline.org Forums

Rollout with +100 ELO MET and about +100 ELO skill

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Friday, 12 September 2008, at 2:49 p.m.

In Response To: GNU 4 ply if = vs if 100 ELO better (neilkaz)

When I did some rollouts a while back for 1 pt matches with GNU 2 ply vs GNU 0 ply I determined that GNU 2 play was about 110 ELO stronger. Of course, this is a very gray area here and we aren't sure what differences cube play could have on that ELO.

Also in this position type, I think 0-ply will do a decent job of just banging away like Stick's opp would have done. The rollout indicates that this is probably a close take under the circumstances. I would have taken it, but had this been doubles vs a team 100 ELO worse and I was PD'd with Stick but had been called away and just returned to see Stick contemplating a pass here, I'd be OK to pass if he said,"Neil, I think they can play this blitz really well, and I REALLY REALLY want to pass this"

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 7, user 5 (match to 11 points)

Move number 3: user on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: gnubg 159, user 145
Position ID: 4LvBQERm4+AEFA Match ID: cAlgAXAAKAAA

• user doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4620	(Money: +0.3809)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.9721
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0279
3.	No double	+0.6476	-0.3245
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6067 0.2562 0.0135 - 0.3933 0.0935 0.0088 +0.4620 +0.6476 Standard error 0.0012 0.0014 0.0006 - 0.0012 0.0013 0.0011 0.0036 0.0081 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.6006 0.2468 0.0131 - 0.3994 0.0899 0.0121 +1.1175 +0.9721 Standard error 0.0015 0.0018 0.0007 - 0.0015 0.0017 0.0015 0.0110 0.0118
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2198 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 836967424 and quasi-random dice
Player 0:
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Player 1:
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Messages In This Thread

• Cube Decision AtO
  Stick -- Wednesday, 10 September 2008, at 9:29 a.m.
  • Cube Decision AtO
    Havard Raddum -- Wednesday, 10 September 2008, at 9:37 a.m.
  • Cube Decision AtO
    Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 10 September 2008, at 12:26 p.m.
  • Cube Decision AtO
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 10 September 2008, at 2:53 p.m.
  • Cube Decision AtO
    David -- Wednesday, 10 September 2008, at 3:12 p.m.
  • Cube Decision AtO
    CamFella -- Wednesday, 10 September 2008, at 3:54 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Thursday, 11 September 2008, at 7:28 a.m.
    • Rollout
      Sam Pottle -- Thursday, 11 September 2008, at 11:19 a.m.
    • GNU 4 ply if = vs if 100 ELO better
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 11 September 2008, at 4:50 p.m.
      • Why the difference in S,G,B breakdowns?
        Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 11 September 2008, at 5:27 p.m.
        • Why the difference in S,G,B breakdowns?
          Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 12 September 2008, at 11:25 a.m.
          • Why the difference in S,G,B breakdowns?
            Chuck Bower -- Friday, 12 September 2008, at 3:44 p.m.
            • Why the difference in S,G,B breakdowns?
              Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 12 September 2008, at 5:54 p.m.
      • Rollout with +100 ELO MET and about +100 ELO skill
        neilkaz -- Friday, 12 September 2008, at 2:49 p.m.