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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 19 February 2007, at 8:48 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Th. Feb. 15th (Stick)

You guys weenied out, esp. at this score I imagine the decision not to rip two off would be even a bigger error. You not only win a couple of trivial more gammons, you actually win more games by ripping two off!


Match to 25, White leads 18 to 10
98
46
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 4/off 2/off 0.957
0.1% 5.2% 95.9% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Live cube rollout: 0.955
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.971 ±0.005, - live cube: 0.955 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 31807 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
2 R 4/off 4/2 0.931 (-0.026)
0.0% 5.0% 95.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Live cube rollout: 0.929
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.950 ±0.004, - live cube: 0.929 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 40193 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.

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