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Problems with 501

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 15 September 2008, at 2:20 p.m.

In Response To: Problems with 501 (Dan Pelton)

The book analysis of position 62 is typical of 501's **main problem: the analysis is often irritatingly short.

First, only two plays are mentioned, 13/11* 10/9 and 13/11*/10. 13/11* 10/9 seems clear to me (and to Robertie) but if you're only going to mention one other play, should it be the pointless pointmaking 13/11*/10 or the daring and blunderful 13/11* 8/7? Which play besides 13/11* 10/9 might the soon-to-be "thinking, aggressive pro-level player" be thinking of? And what about 13/11* 6/5?

Second, what's up with the centered cube? Blue had double/pass before the roll. If we're playing money game Jacoby, it's double/pass after the roll. If not, it's too good or double/pass after the roll, and the play choice really can't make much difference as long as Blue doesn't blunder. The play is clear, but there's a lot more to the position than just "don't make points automatically," the lesson Robertie uses it for.

**The other main problem being the lack of rollout data. I can't imagine that none were done -- Snowie cubeless truncated would be my guess. I seem to recall that Walter Trice rolled out quite a few positions when he reviewed the book in Flint and found few if any errors.

Here's a too-short rollout of position 62 with White owning the cube.

The score (after 0 games) is: Opponent 0, Dynamic Pro Player 0

Move number 6: Dynamic Pro Player to play 21

Opponent104


'2X3X3X3X ' ' ' ' ' '3O

1X '2O2O2O3O '2O '1O1X2X

Dynamic Pro Player107

Position ID: dneABSBsOxMHAA Match ID: QQkFAAAAAAAA

• Dynamic Pro Player moves 13/11* 10/9

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 R 13/11* 10/9 +0.9816
0.86770.30320.0100-0.13230.01750.0005 +1.0306 +0.9816
0.00290.00500.0011-0.00290.00220.0002 0.0075 0.0086
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
170 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 836796923 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 13/11* 6/5 +0.9816 ( -0.0000)
0.87150.29620.0080-0.12850.02000.0009 +1.0263 +0.9816
0.00280.00540.0010-0.00280.00150.0002 0.0069 0.0078
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
169 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 836796923 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R 13/11*/10 +0.9629 ( -0.0187)
0.86360.30180.0097-0.13640.02580.0024 +1.0104 +0.9629
0.00370.00670.0014-0.00370.00360.0011 0.0089 0.0097
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
169 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 836796923 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
4 R 13/11* 8/7 +0.8271 ( -0.1545)
0.82510.28960.0067-0.17490.05920.0037 +0.8835 +0.8271
0.00400.00590.0019-0.00400.00360.0005 0.0083 0.0090
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
112 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 836796923 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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