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football/ Chuck

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Monday, 15 September 2008, at 5:17 p.m.

In Response To: football/ Chuck (Coolrey)

We have match equity charts, and they have developed similar charts on when to go for 2 and when not to. I ASSUME they all use that stuff.

I think, in general, you should go for 2 points in the 4th quarter if it puts you within FG range. Of course I may be wrong according to ZEUS, but it seems right to me.
1) If the other team doesn't score again, now you can win with a FG or touchdown (or 2 FGs). Going for 1 doesn't change this.
2) If the other team scores a TD, you would need a TD plus another TD anyway.
3) If the other team scores a FG, you can still tie it with a TD & 2 point conversion. The odds of getting at least 1/2 2 point conversions are somewhat higher than 50%--if teams make about 40% of their 2 point tries, then they should make one 1-(.6*.6) of the time, or 64%.

18 minutes left isn't quite the 4th quarter, but it's close enough that there aren't going to be too many drives left. As you get more time left you should tend towards going for 1, obviously.

The Browns thing is more problematic, but after managing only 3 points all game and facing 4th and long... One can't be too optimistic about their chances of success! (?) Might be the equivalent of hitting a 17-1 shot, but to make a field goal and have a successful onside kick and then score a touchdown, well that is two big sets in the bearoff vs. 3 checkers on the ace point.

Converting a 4th and long, that's like rolling one set in a 4-roll position. And even if they kick a FG and manage to get the ball back, they STILL need a TD...which they could have gotten if they converted the 4th and long. They also didn't go for an onside kick here but used their timeouts instead (this probably makes sense). Oh, and if they don't convert the 4th and long, the Steelers have the ball on their own 21, rather than their own 31. I'd understand if it was preseason and the games didn't count, but this is the actual season now.

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