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Re: A critical cube from Pitt

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Tuesday, 20 February 2007, at 9:02 a.m.

In Response To: A critical cube from Pitt (neilkaz)

Assuming 50% of Blue's wins are gammons, winning the match even with the cube on four, by doubling Blue risks 24% to gain 12%; his doubling window opens at 66%.

Any one, six or specific five-two are obviously great rolls for Blue. White needs 24% to take, which looks doubtful to me.

I'm somewhat inclined to play on, but there's many opportunities for accidents of the fly-shot variety, so I think it's worth cashing four points. Double and Pass.

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