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Rollout data

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 3:41 p.m.

In Response To: Stick's Biggest Error in Our Match, According to Snowie (Stick)

This one is actually pretty easy to do with GNU because no one will get these plays wrong and it rolls out really fast. The only problem is that only the JT 50-point and 100-point ELO METs are included with GNU, which doesn't help at all if you're playing an intermediate, but will work for most strong Open players.

With JT 100 MET, still a big take, losing about 0.95% MWC to pass.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 2 (match to 9 points)

Move number 5: Blue to play 43

White	19
Blue	16
Position ID: WAEAoFEAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkuAQAAEAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4486	(Money: +0.4486)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.9226
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0774
3.	No double	+0.6708	-0.2518
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.7243 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2757 0.0000 0.0000 +0.4486 +0.6708 Standard error 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 Player White owns 4-cube 0.7245 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2755 0.0000 0.0000 +1.0166 +0.9226 Standard error 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
34687 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 838436732 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Shift a checker on the deuce to the ace and it's a big pass with JT 100, now giving up about .971% MWC the other way:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 2 (match to 9 points)

Move number 6: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	19
Blue	15
Position ID: WAEAYFEAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkgAQAAEAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5125	(Money: +0.5125)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0794	+0.0794
3.	No double	+0.7181	-0.2819
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.7563 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2437 0.0000 0.0000 +0.5125 +0.7181 Standard error 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 Player White owns 4-cube 0.7567 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2433 0.0000 0.0000 +1.1503 +1.0794 Standard error 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0002
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
12659 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 838436732 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

But it's a big take if you're using g11, losing more than 1.27% MWC to pass it.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 2 (match to 9 points)

Move number 6: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	19
Blue	15
Position ID: WAEAYFEAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkgAQAAEAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5127	(Money: +0.5127)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.8881
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.1119
3.	No double	+0.6811	-0.2070
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.7564 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2436 0.0000 0.0000 +0.5127 +0.6811 Standard error 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 Player White owns 4-cube 0.7567 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2433 0.0000 0.0000 +1.0098 +0.8881 Standard error 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0003
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
13039 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 838436732 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Stick's Recorded Matches in Madison
  Bill Riles -- Saturday, 20 September 2008, at 1:40 a.m.
  • Stick's Biggest Error in Our Match, According to Snowie
    Bill Riles -- Saturday, 20 September 2008, at 2:11 a.m.
    • Stick's Biggest Error in Our Match, According to Snowie
      likesbg -- Saturday, 20 September 2008, at 9:47 a.m.
    • Stick's Biggest Error in Our Match, According to Snowie
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 20 September 2008, at 7:19 p.m.
    • Stick's Biggest Error in Our Match, According to Snowie
      Stick -- Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 9:24 a.m.
      • Rollout data
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 3:41 p.m.
  • Stick's Recorded Matches in Madison
    Stick -- Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 9:19 a.m.