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Galddening Daniel's heart

Posted By: Sam Pottle
Date: Monday, 22 September 2008, at 12:53 p.m.

In Response To: 1st roll: 64: -2, -1 Post-Crawford? (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Delving into the USENET archives...

Here's what I had to say eight years ago:

> I wonder, has this subject ever been thoroughly discussed before?

Chuck Bower wrote an excellent article on the subject for Inside Backgammon (v. 8, no. 2).

His numbers show 24/14 and 8/2 6/2 too close to call, although 24/14 did very slightly better. Leader can take after either play if he rolls 31, 42, or any set. The other 2's (21, 32, 52, 62) give him a take after 24/14, when he hits. 61 gives him a take after 8/2 6/2 (64: 24/14, 61: 13/7 8/7 is a drop).

The strength of 24/14 is that it leaves trailer much better off after most of leader's strongest rolls (66, 44, 33, 11, 31). (Nearly) escaping a back man is a real accomplishment for this otherwise mediocre roll. This appears to be enough to offset the six extra "taking" response rolls to 24/14.

...

Instead of playing very safe and hoping leader won't roll well, you should play constructively in case he does. Assume that your opponent will roll one of his best, and make your own play accordingly.

Thread here: http://tinyurl.com/4qvhpa

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