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DMP open 6-5 reply 3-1

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 22 September 2008, at 8:49 p.m.

In Response To: DMP open 6-5 reply 3-1 (pontiac)

dont mean the best play is not 5pt they are all equal as shown

Again, this isn't quite right. The rollout does not show that the plays are equal. The rollout isn't long enough. The rollout shows that it's not long enough to show whether one play is better than the others.

and it is not necessery to extend rollout one day two day it goes as same.

If you have already extended the rollout and found that the plays were very close, fine. But if you haven't already extended the rollout, then yes, you would have to extend the rollout to find out how close the plays are. They might still be close after three days of computer time, but you can't know that by looking only at the results of the first 660 trials.

I understand that you also have a question about the equities: why are they negative? Well, White opened with 6-5. That's 11 pips. Blue has responded with 31-, a four pip roll. If Blue hits, the race is even but White is on roll, and nobody has much positional advantage. If Blue doesn't hit, Blue has the 5 point, but White is 7 pips ahead (about one roll's worth of pips), plus White is on roll.

So, yes -- may be the dice turn is him so he is stronger? -- much of the small advantage your rollout finds for White is due to it being White's turn to roll.

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