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Rollout started ...

Posted By: Mislav Radica
Date: Tuesday, 23 September 2008, at 11:08 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Tues. Sept. 23rd (Stick)

If we lift and White roll six we have very difficult job to hit with only one checker back or to win in race, but if we stay on barpt and White roll 64 65 we get direct shot and two checkers for containment. At 66 we get double shot but if we lift we get only direct shot. Also on 61 62 63 we get two checkers back which is better than only one.

On the other hand if White miss to roll six we have 6s 1s and 4s (11 12 13 14 15 16 22 24 26 33 34 36 44 45 46 55 56 66) total 30 shots to hit loose on our acept. If White doesn't lift blot in his hb we can even get a chance to pick up second checker.

But if we lift we have 1s 3s and 4s (11 12 13 14 15 16 22 23 24 33 34 35 36 44 45 46) total 28 shots. It looks like as win-win proposition.

Off course, we can dance after leaving barpt slotted on White's three point board enough long so White can brings his last checker closer to home. I think white is not favorite to roll six, we are favorite to hit loose if leave barpt checker where it is and we are favorite to enter at three point board and have more chance for containment with two checkers than with only one.

b/16

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