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Rollout

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Wednesday, 21 February 2007, at 11:50 p.m.

In Response To: A critical cube from Pitt (neilkaz)

If you are unsure whether it is a take or drop and the score is close and you also can lose a G, these situations are almost never TG if the next roll is volatile.

OTB I was unsure whether it was a take or pass and unsure what Ray would do, so I cubed, he took and I close him out with a sexy 52 after which I followed up with 45,55,and 22 cracking from a position with 34 spare pips. He rolled an instant 65 to enter and hit loose and had some difficulties closing me out but I never could roll a 6 later after hitting back and was sent off to sulk in the conso.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 4, user 4 (match to 11 points)

Move number 6: user on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: gnubg 107, user 109
Position ID: tu0EBkB22wFgIA Match ID: UglgAUAAIAAA

• user doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.6643	(Money: +0.8734)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.9854
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0146
3.	No double	+0.9157	-0.0697
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player user owns 4-cube 0.7547 0.4140 0.0211 - 0.2453 0.0640 0.0070 +0.6643 +0.9157 Standard error 0.0008 0.0037 0.0014 - 0.0008 0.0017 0.0009 0.0029 0.0027 Player gnubg owns 8-cube 0.7613 0.4640 0.0212 - 0.2387 0.0720 0.0074 +0.9854 +0.9854 Standard error 0.0008 0.0052 0.0014 - 0.0008 0.0023 0.0010 0.0030 0.0030
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
4516 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1022368153 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• A critical cube from Pitt
  neilkaz -- Tuesday, 20 February 2007, at 12:59 a.m.
  • Re: A critical cube from Pitt
    Stick -- Tuesday, 20 February 2007, at 7:00 a.m.
  • Re: A critical cube from Pitt
    Ian Shaw -- Tuesday, 20 February 2007, at 9:02 a.m.
  • Re: A critical cube from Pitt
    Stein Kulseth -- Tuesday, 20 February 2007, at 11:02 a.m.
  • Re: A critical cube from Pitt
    Stanley E. Richards -- Tuesday, 20 February 2007, at 4:11 p.m.
  • Rollout
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 21 February 2007, at 11:50 p.m.