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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 22 February 2007, at 10:06 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Tues. Feb. 20th - Cube Decision (Stick)

I thought this was very close to a money double and at this score it may be a double. I didn't roll it out w/GNU @ the score because GNU pisses me off sometimes on cube decision rollouts so if someone wants to...feel free. Even though my take is so easy right now I think I'd have cubed being behind like you are in the match. Cube possession doesn't mean a lot to me as I won't be jumping to rewhip to 4 unless something really fancy happens. I'm also likely to give up my mid next turn and make your route home easier. It's only an 8 pip lead + on roll but your points should be easier to clear than normal with the addition of your bar point.


Match to 25, White leads 18 to 12
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
131
123
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.427
0.2% 4.5% 70.3% 29.7% 2.5% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.427 ±0.009, - live cube no double: 0.700 ±0.018, - live cube double take: 0.667 ±0.023. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 49047 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
Evaluations
1. No double 0.653
2. Double, take 0.638 (-0.015)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.347)
Proper cube action: No double, take4%
Live cube
1. No double 0.700
2. Double, take 0.667 (-0.033)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.300)
Proper cube action: No double, take10%

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