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Free drop at GS

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Friday, 26 September 2008, at 12:28 a.m.

In Response To: Free drop at GS (Petter Bengtsson)

Keep in mind that if you don't use the free drop this time you have the option of using it at -2, -1 if you are not gammoned. That must be worth something. Also, the issue is not only whether you will be above or below 50%, you also have to take into account whether the trailer gammons you more than average or not. Gammon value is worth a little bit over 1 here.

Since 5-1 is the only opening roll that is rolled out as a drop at -2, -1, it would make sense that 5-1 is also a drop at -4, -1.

Let's see, according to g11: Free drop is worth 1.1890% at -2, -1. It's worth just slightly more (or less, depending on how you look at it) at -4,-1, at 1.1820%. So you should take at 49.993% or more. Not much, but enough to swing 6-3.

At -2, -1 Cr, trailer wins about 31.8550%. Since gammons are worth 1, that means he wins 2(6.8550%) gammons = 13.71%. Gammons are worth about 1.05 at -4, -1, but I'll just say they're worth 1. So leader should take when he is 49.993% less gammons won above 13.71%, or 49.993% plus gammons won below 13.71%.

So going by the site, some of which may be TCTC, since I don't feel like digging into the variance:

21 is a drop, 41 is a drop, I assume that 51 is a drop, 64 is a take, 63 is a take, 43 is a drop, 54 is a take, 32 is a drop.

Or 21, 41, 51, 32, 43 are drops at -4, -1.

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