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Free drop at GS

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 26 September 2008, at 3:19 p.m.

In Response To: Free drop at GS (Petter Bengtsson)

Quote: The GS rollouts shows that the following opening rolls are less than 50% at GS: 2-1, 4-1, 3-2, 4-3, 5-4, 6-3, 6-4. I have always taken the cube at -1:-4 Post Crawford with most of these opening rolls, but the rollouts indicate that taking the free drop is the correct action.

The referenced "GS rollouts" are at the score 1-away 2-away Crawford.

Are we all clear that those "GS" win percentages are irrelevant to cube decisions at 1-away 2-away post-Crawford? The relevant Win percentages are in the DMP rollouts.

Moving on to 1-away 4-away post-Crawford ...

Quote: If you win the opening roll with 2-1 you win 49.38% and lose single 37.14% [says a rollout at the score 1-away 2-away Crawford]. Your match equity [leading 1-away 4-away post-Crawford] is: 0.4938 * 1.00 + 0.3714 * 0.5119 = 0.6839. This is greater than 0.6823 [your 1-away 3-away post-Crawford equity] so you should take.

Is this correct or have I made yet another mistake? :)

I think you should take, but I believe the big mistake in this discussion is assuming that the Win and Gammon Loss percentages at 1-away 4-away post-Crawford will be the same as or can be predicted from the percentages in rollouts at the score 1-away 2-away Crawford.

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