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Rollout

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 26 September 2008, at 7:11 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Quote: ohh 195 trials not enough to persuade 7-5 is better it needs more i guess..

I like to run rollouts until the JSD exceeds 3.0 -- a reasonable but arbitrary round number. By that standard, 195 trials is (very close to) "enough."

When published rollouts don't report the JSD, I might add the SD of play 1 and the SD of play 2, and double the sum. If that sum is less than the difference between the two plays, then the rollout is long enough. So again 195 trials is enough, since 2*(0.0027 + 0.0027 = 0.0108, slightly less than 0.0111.

Play EMG 1 SD EMG +/- 1 SD EMG +/- 2 SDs EMG +/- 3 SDs Rank/no. JSD
7/5 2/1* 0.72590.0030 0.7229 - 0.72890.7199 - 0.7319 0.7169 - 0.7349
16/14 2/1*0.71510.0027 0.7124 0.71780.7097 - 0.7205 0.7070 - 0.7232

TrialsRank (16/14 2/1*) behind by (EMG)SD (7/5 2/1*)SD 16/14 2/1*JSD
36 2 0.0134 0.0045 0.0079 1.478
72 2 0.0114 0.0040 0.0046 1.879
108 2 0.0098 0.0034 0.0035 1.991
144 2 0.0087 0.0030 0.0032 1.989
180 2 0.0093 0.0028 0.0028 2.349
195 2 0.0111 0.0027 0.0027 2.944
216 2 0.0105 0.0026 0.0026 2.938
252 2 0.0115 0.0025 0.0024 3.311
288 2 0.0103 0.0024 0.0023 3.157
324 2 0.0103 0.0022 0.0021 3.319

The score (after 0 games) is: Stick 6, Gang 13 (match to 17 points)

Move number 5: Gang to play 12

Stick47


7X5X2X ' ' ' ' '1O ' ' '

1X4O2O2O3O2O1O ' ' ' ' '

Gang72

Position ID: f98AACDedgsgAA Match ID: UokoAmAAaAAA

• Gang moves 7/5 2/1*

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 R 7/5 2/1* +0.7230
0.86520.04960.0040-0.13480.00400.0000 +0.7230 +0.7230
0.00130.01130.0022-0.00130.00070.0000 0.0027 0.0027
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
195 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 838302616 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 16/14 2/1* +0.7119 ( -0.0111)
0.87580.04820.0014-0.12420.02130.0001 +0.7119 +0.7119
0.00130.01200.0009-0.00130.00090.0001 0.0027 0.0027
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
195 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 838302616 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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