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Rollout

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Friday, 26 September 2008, at 9:38 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Philippe Michel)

How are these numbers (2.68 and 98%) related ?

I thought this came from the normal distribution : play A beats play B by 1 jsd in rollout : 84% chance that play A is better, 2 jsd : 98%, ... 2.68 jsd : 99.6%.

2 JSD = 95%
3 JSD = 99.7%

2.68 JSD = somewhere in the middle, but closer to 3 than to 2.
98% = educated guess.

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